What works in intelligence

This report analyses police intelligence practice in Britain through the lens of the ‘what works?’ concept. It is based on a survey of a self-selected group of intelligence staff together with interviews with a random sample of their number. Participants reflected on: their skills and abilities; their training; their successes and their failures; and the utility of the structures and processes within which they operated. We found that respondents broadly agreed on what contributed to effective practice. For example, analysts, intelligence officers and managers ranked a skilled workforce as of greatest import. Human intelligence (HUMINT); operational teams, capable of responding quickly to intelligence; information technology; and plentiful sources of intelligence in their communities, were consistently ranked the top four significant factors in their successes. At the same time, we conclude that while the ‘what works?’ approach has some value when applied to policing, there are clear limits to its explanatory power. We conclude that the ‘what works?’ approach also raises important, albeit largely ignored, questions about institutional memory and identity and that institutional and cultural factors represent significant barriers to the adoption of evidence-based practice in policing

G protein-coupled receptor GPR37-like 1 regulates adult oligodendrocyte generation

Oligodendrocytes (OLs) continue to be generated from OL precursors (OPs) in the adult mammalian brain. Adult-born OLs are believed to contribute to neural plasticity, learning and memory through a process of “adaptive myelination”, but how adult OL generation and adaptive myelination are regulated remains unclear. Here, we report that the glia-specific G protein-coupled receptor 37-like 1 (GPR37L1) is expressed in subsets of OPs and newly-formed immature OLs in adult mouse brain. We found that OP proliferation and differentiation are inhibited in the corpus callosum of adult Gpr37l1 knockout mice, leading to a reduction in the number of adult-born OLs. Our data raise the possibility that GPR37L1 is mechanistically involved in adult OL generation and adaptive myelination, and suggest that GPR37L1 might be a useful functional marker of OPs that are committed to OL differentiation

A lifecourse mendelian randomization study highlights the long-term influence of childhood body size on later life heart structure

Children with obesity typically have larger left ventricular heart dimensions during adulthood. However, whether this is due to a persistent effect of adiposity extending into adulthood is challenging to disentangle due to confounding factors throughout the lifecourse. We conducted a multivariable mendelian randomization (MR) study to separate the independent effects of childhood and adult body size on 4 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of heart structure and function in the UK Biobank (UKB) study. Strong evidence of a genetically predicted effect of childhood body size on all measures of adulthood heart structure was identified, which remained robust upon accounting for adult body size using a multivariable MR framework (e.g., left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), Beta = 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23 to 0.43, P = 4.6 × 10-10). Sensitivity analyses did not suggest that other lifecourse measures of body composition were responsible for these effects. Conversely, evidence of a genetically predicted effect of childhood body size on various other MRI-based measures, such as fat percentage in the liver (Beta = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.05 to 0.23, P = 0.002) and pancreas (Beta = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.33, P = 3.9 × 10-4), attenuated upon accounting for adult body size. Our findings suggest that childhood body size has a long-term (and potentially immutable) influence on heart structure in later life. In contrast, effects of childhood body size on other measures of adulthood organ size and fat percentage evaluated in this study are likely explained by the long-term consequence of remaining overweight throughout the lifecourse

Slower alpha rhythm associates with poorer seizure control in epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: Slowing and frontal spread of the alpha rhythm have been reported in multiple epilepsy syndromes. We investigated whether these phenomena are associated with seizure control. METHODS: We prospectively acquired resting-state electroencephalogram (EEG) in 63 patients with focal and idiopathic generalized epilepsy (FE and IGE) and 39 age- and gender-matched healthy subjects (HS). Patients were divided into good and poor (≥4 seizures/12 months) seizure control groups based on self-reports and clinical records. We computed spectral power from 20-sec EEG segments during eyes-closed wakefulness, free of interictal abnormalities, and quantified power in high- and low-alpha bands. Analysis of covariance and post hoc t-tests were used to assess group differences in alpha-power shift across all EEG channels. Permutation-based statistics were used to assess the topography of this shift across the whole scalp. RESULTS: Compared to HS, patients showed a statistically significant shift of spectral power from high- to low-alpha frequencies (effect size g = 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.43, 1.20]). This alpha-power shift was driven by patients with poor seizure control in both FE and IGE (g = 1.14, [0.65, 1.74]), and occurred over midline frontal and bilateral occipital regions. IGE exhibited less alpha power shift compared to FE over bilateral frontal regions (g = -1.16 [-0.68, -1.74]). There was no interaction between syndrome and seizure control. Effects were independent of antiepileptic drug load, time of day, or subgroup definitions. INTERPRETATION: Alpha slowing and anteriorization are a robust finding in patients with epilepsy and might represent a generic indicator of seizure liability

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ(18)O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ(18)O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.We thank the members of the RV Bjarni Sæmundsson (Cruise No. B05-2006). This work was supported by the NERC-funded ULTRA project (Grant Number NE/H023356/1), NERC-funded CLAM project; (Project No. NE/N001176/1) and EU Millennium Project (Project number 017008). This study is a contribution to the Climate Change Consortium for Wales (C3W). We thank Brian Long (Bangor University) and Dr Julia Becker (Cardiff University) for their technical support, and Dr Manfred Mudelsee for his assistance with the trend analysis. We thank Dr Jessica Tierney and an anonymous reviewer for providing the constructive comments in the reviewing process

30 days wild: development and evaluation of a large-scale nature engagement campaign to improve well-being

There is a need to increase people’s engagement with and connection to nature, both for human well-being and the conservation of nature itself. In order to suggest ways for people to engage with nature and create a wider social context to normalise nature engagement, The Wildlife Trusts developed a mass engagement campaign, 30 Days Wild. The campaign asked people to engage with nature every day for a month. 12,400 people signed up for 30 Days Wild via an online sign-up with an estimated 18,500 taking part overall, resulting in an estimated 300,000 engagements with nature by participants. Samples of those taking part were found to have sustained increases in happiness, health, connection to nature and pro-nature behaviours. With the improvement in health being predicted by the improvement in happiness, this relationship was mediated by the change in connection to nature

Regenerative Response of Degenerate Human Nucleus Pulposus Cells to GDF6 Stimulation

Growth differentiation factor (GDF) family members have been implicated in the development and maintenance of healthy nucleus pulposus (NP) tissue, making them promising therapeutic candidates for treatment of intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration and associated back pain. GDF6 has been shown to promote discogenic differentiation of mesenchymal stem cells, but its effect on NP cells remains largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate GDF6 signalling in adult human NP cells derived from degenerate tissue and determine the signal transduction pathways critical for GDF6-mediated phenotypic changes and tissue homeostatic mechanisms. This study demonstrates maintained expression of GDF6 receptors in human NP and annulus fibrosus (AF) cells across a range of degeneration grades at gene and protein level. We observed an anabolic response in NP cells treated with recombinant GDF6 (increased expression of matrix and NP-phenotypic markers; increased glycosaminoglycan production; no change in catabolic enzyme expression), and identified the signalling pathways involved in these responses (SMAD1/5/8 and ERK1/2 phosphorylation, validated by blocking studies). These findings suggest that GDF6 promotes a healthy disc tissue phenotype in degenerate NP cells through SMAD-dependent and -independent (ERK1/2) mechanisms, which is important for development of GDF6 therapeutic strategies for treatment of degenerate discs.</jats:p

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods

Characteristics associated with quality of life among people with drug-resistant epilepsy

Quality of Life (QoL) is the preferred outcome in non-pharmacological trials, but there is little UK population evidence of QoL in epilepsy. In advance of evaluating an epilepsy self-management course we aimed to describe, among UK participants, what clinical and psycho-social characteristics are associated with QoL. We recruited 404 adults attending specialist clinics, with at least two seizures in the prior year and measured their self-reported seizure frequency, co-morbidity, psychological distress, social characteristics, including self-mastery and stigma, and epilepsy-specific QoL (QOLIE-31-P). Mean age was 42 years, 54% were female, and 75% white. Median time since diagnosis was 18 years, and 69% experienced ≥10 seizures in the prior year. Nearly half (46%) reported additional medical or psychiatric conditions, 54% reported current anxiety and 28% reported current depression symptoms at borderline or case level, with 63% reporting felt stigma. While a maximum QOLIE-31-P score is 100, participants’ mean score was 66, with a wide range (25–99). In order of large to small magnitude: depression, low self-mastery, anxiety, felt stigma, a history of medical and psychiatric comorbidity, low self-reported medication adherence, and greater seizure frequency were associated with low QOLIE-31-P scores. Despite specialist care, UK people with epilepsy and persistent seizures experience low QoL. If QoL is the main outcome in epilepsy trials, developing and evaluating ways to reduce psychological and social disadvantage are likely to be of primary importance. Educational courses may not change QoL, but be one component supporting self-management for people with long-term conditions, like epilepsy